| Name | Team | Position | OFF | DEF | OVRL | TVPG | AR | APG | VPA | APP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham | Oklahoma St. | PG | 0.62 | 0.55 | 1.17 | 41.4 | 1.11 | 39.3 | 1.05 | 1.94 |
| Jalen Green | G-League Ignite | SG | 0.61 | 0.41 | 1.02 | 32.6 | 0.91 | 29.1 | 1.12 | 1.62 |
| Evan Mobley | USC | C | 0.71 | 1.1 | 1.81 | 61.4 | 1.03 | 34.9 | 1.76 | 2.13 |
| Jalen Suggs | Gonzaga | PG | 0.59 | 0.54 | 1.13 | 32.7 | 1.1 | 31.8 | 1.03 | 2.21 |
| Scottie Barnes | Florida State | SF | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.99 | 24.6 | 1.03 | 25.5 | 0.96 | 2.47 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | G-League Ignite | SF | 0.2 | 0.55 | 0.75 | 24.6 | 1.05 | 34.4 | 0.72 | 2.17 |
| Davion Mitchell | Baylor | PG | 0.59 | 0.39 | 0.98 | 32.3 | 0.84 | 27.7 | 1.17 | 1.98 |
| James Bouknight | UConn | SG | 0.61 | 0.35 | 0.96 | 30.4 | 1.06 | 33.6 | 0.9 | 1.79 |
| Josh Giddey | Adelaide 36ers | PG | 0.51 | 0.51 | 1.01 | 32.4 | 1.03 | 33.1 | 0.98 | 3.06 |
| Keon Johnson | Tennessee | SG | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.68 | 17.3 | 1 | 25.5 | 0.68 | 2.25 |
According to the ESPN website, the above players were the projected top 10 picks. We ran their numbers from last season through the VPM algorithm to see who brings the highest statistical value, notch offensively and defensively as well as overall.
Players such as Green, Mitchell, and Bouknight are noticeably more valuable offensively compared to their defensive numbers. Mobley and Kuminga have higher values defensively than offensively with everyone else being more balanced between to the two sides of the court.
Mobley has the highest value offensively, defensively and overall. Due to his high values on both ends as well as his minutes played per game, Mobley also provides the highest total statistical value per game.
Cunningham has the highest AR which sees him making 1.11 statistical actions per minute and also actions per game. His numbers are quite good for a point guard.
Mobley also gets the most value from his actions with each action being worth 1.76.
Green is the most efficient with 1.62 statistical actions per point scored. Not surprising for a shooting guard. Josh Giddey takes 3.06 actions per point scored.
Who to take obviously comes down to need and who is left on the board. If your team needs a big who can defend, rebound and play at a good pace, Mobley would be the man.
Cunningham is solid on both ends plays at a good pace with efficiency so as a point guard is the best choice but Suggs is not far behind.
Green is the right choice for those looking for a shooting guard who will give you a lot of value for each action. Mitchell is not far off in value per minute and his value per action is slightly better than Green.
Best Picks
1st - The Detroit Pistons should take Cunningham because they do need a point guard who can contribute on both ends of the floor and is ready to go from day one. Cunningham is the stand out guard in the draft and has the size at 6’8”.
2nd - Mobley would be a perfect fit for Houston. It’d allow them to shift Christian Wood back to power forward and therefore giving them an impressive starting 5 when healthy. Mobley brings a lot of value on both ends which Houston desperately need.
3rd - Cleveland could do with some point guard depth. Darius Garland has been impressive for the Cavs and is still young so has a lot of potential. Suggs would be a great choice but Giddey might be a better fit. At just 18, the youngster is probably best suited to be a back up whereas Suggs could be a starter from the go. With fellow Aussie and NBA veteran, Matthew Dellavedova, on the roster it could be beneficial for Giddey’s acclimatisation while not stifling Garland’s development.
4th - Suggs would be the perfect heir apparent to Kyle Lowry. He also gives them some extra size at the point. Lowry has had his injury problems recently and Suggs is ready to step into that starting role when called upon. Having Suggs would definitely ease the workload for Lowry. He can also play shooting guard which would give the side some versatility.
5th - Barnes might just be the right fit for the Orlando Magic. He can give the Magic some much needed depth as a wing. Solid on the boards and not a bad playmaker either. Needs to work on his shot, especially from the line and from 3 but he would street then an area that they need strengthening in.
*Dellavedova has since left and signed with Melbourne United in the Australian National Basketball League.
