Reigning champions, Los Angeles Lakers face the Phoenix Suns who own the league’s second best record. Despite being the 7th seed and having a losing record to Phoenix this season, the Lakers might just be favourites.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers had a record of 42-30 this season but that doesn’t really tell the whole story. Their two stars, Anthony Davis and LeBron James, missed 36 and 27 games respectively. They averaged 109.5 points per game to their opponent’s 106.8. Below we can see the value per minute breakdown of their season and their opponents.
The attacking value of the Lakers is identical to their opponent’s but where they have the advantage is defensively. They are better at converting their value to points. We can see that their action rate (actions per minute) is slightly higher than their opponents and they get more value per action while needing less value per point. This means that they get more bang for their buck and make their opponents have to work harder for their points.
It’s fair to assume that with their big two available for more games that these numbers would be even better for the Lakers. It’s a big reason that the standings and previous results between them and Phoenix may not tell the full story.
Phoenix Suns
The Phoenix Suns finished with the second best record in the league due to their consistency and high value output on offense. They’ve been able to field a consistent lineup with their key players, Chris Paul and Devin Booker, only missing a combined 7 games.
Phoenix don’t have the highest action rate but they get a lot of value for their actions, especially compared to their opponents. This combined with the big gap between the value per point is a big reason the Suns are where they are. They beat teams with their efficiency and effectiveness on offense.
Previous Meetings
These two have met three times previously this season with the Suns leading the series, 2-1. As pointed out though, this doesn’t really tell the whole story. The Lakers have not had their full lineup in any of the three meetings. The first game saw Anthony Davis miss out, they had to do without Davis and James in the second game, and with their only win they were still missing James and Dennis Schröder.
It’s expected that all hands will be on deck for their playoff series and that throws up a little bit more of the unknown based on what we’ve seen this season.
In their three previous meetings, the average winning margin has been 13.3 points. The biggest win came for the Suns in the second meeting as they beat the Lakers by 17 with both Lakers stars out.
Anthony Davis was able to power the Lakers to a 13 point win in their last meeting and this is the key to the series, keeping their stars on the court.
Key Players
Phoenix Suns
Deandre Ayton - Ayton will be needed to step up against LA’s big men. He did well in their wins but with AD and Drummond in for the Lakers, he struggled offensively and didn’t really do much to thwart AD on offense, especially the boards. If he can produce anything like his season averages, the Suns will have a better chance of countering the production of LA’s big men.
Devin Booker - Booker is the primary scorer in the Suns team and they’ll need that from him in this series. Against the Lakers he was more productive defensively than usual but his offensive output was slightly down but overall his value was identical despite being less active. The Suns will need more offense without losing the defensive value.
Chris Paul - Overall, CP3 produced a higher value against the Lakers than usual and was more involved. This was done though defensively with a huge increase in his defensive value to offset his dip in offensive value. A full strength Lakers does pose a different challenge though
Los Angeles Lakers
Anthony Davis - AD has had an injury interrupted season and hasn’t set the world on fire like he did last season. However, in his one game against the Suns, they had no answer for him. On both ends of the floor he was the most dominant player, more than doubling his value across the board when he faced the Suns. He is the main man in this series. If they can’t find an answer to AD and he can stay healthy, the Suns will struggle to compete. Will AD be able to produce these numbers consistently in the series is a big question.
Dennis Schröder - Schröder managed to play the Suns twice but both times ended in losses. In every area Schröder struggled against the Suns compared to his regular season numbers which corresponds to the improved defensive value of the Phoenix guards. With LeBron and AD in the team, the pressure will be off Schröder offensively but they will need improved value on the defensive end as that is where the Suns generate so much of their offense.
LeBron James - Like AD, LeBron has only played the Suns once this season and it was in their first meeting which was a 10 point loss. Individually he had a great game with every value improving on his usual regular season output. He was much more efficient too than usual which suggests that the Suns couldn’t handle LeBron but didn’t have to as they were superior everywhere else. However, when you add AD’s output to LeBron’s it gives the Lakers a huge lift
Series Prediction
The health of the Lakers big two is what will decide this series. The Suns haven’t had to face them together yet while the Lakers have basically seen everything the Suns have to offer. What we have seen from the little samples we have, is that both teams are down on their season averages across the board when they face each other. Given the Suns have had the more consistent lineup of the two, it’s more concerning for them than the Lakers who should be at full strength for the first time. Both James and AD have enjoyed big nights against the Suns which spells trouble for the Suns’ chances of getting out of this series.
The games are likely to be closely fought encounters but the individual qualities of the Lakers big two should see them prevail in the series. Phoenix’s best chance will come by controlling the pace and not giving the Lakers easy looks. If they can slow the game down while maintaining their offensive efficiency it might throw the Lakers off their game. The Lakers will ultimately win through AD so the pressure will be on Ayton to produce more on both ends than he did the last time the two sides met.
Lakers 4 - 2 Suns
